Prepared for Manish Chopra by Henry Obegi

Coupang, Inc. (NYSE: CPNG) • Deep Dive Analysis

NYSE • Korean E-Commerce • March 2026

South Korean Macro Snapshot

0.9-1.0%
GDP Growth (2025E)
1.8-2.1%
GDP Growth (2026E)
2.50%
BOK Base Rate
1,478
KRW/USD
Mild cyclical trough. 2025 growth at ~1% is below the 2.5% potential, dragged by US tariffs (raised to 25% in Jan 2026) and semiconductor inventory correction. The 2026 rebound to ~2% hinges on fiscal stimulus and BOK easing feeding through.

BOK Monetary Policy

ParameterValueNotes
Base Rate2.50%100 bps of cuts since Oct 2024 (from 3.50%)
Meetings on hold6 consecutiveFeb 2026 dropped prior "maintain cut stance" language
Household debt/GDP~105%Among highest in OECD; constrains further easing
Further cuts expectedNone in 2026Multiple forecasters see no more BOK cuts
Prior 100 bps cuts provide lagged consumption boost through 2026. But the pause means no incremental monetary tailwind. Lower rates help Coupang's borrowing costs (significant lease liabilities and infrastructure capex).

FX Exposure: KRW/USD

Current KRW/USD1,478 (near multi-year lows)
2026 Consensus Range1,395-1,490
FX Sensitivity5% KRW depreciation = ~$1.7B revenue drag
Pure translation exposure. Coupang earns in KRW but reports in USD. Weak KRW mechanically depresses USD-reported revenue. If the won appreciates toward 1,400 (consensus), it becomes a tailwind. At current 1,478, this is a headwind.

Corporate Tax

Taxable Income (KRW)Combined Rate
0-200M11.0%
200M-20B22.0%
20B-300B24.2%
300B+27.5%
FY2025 Effective Tax Rate64.2% (DTA distortion)
Normalized ETR (FY2027-28)24-27%
ETR is temporarily elevated from DTA normalization. The company accumulated massive NOL carryforwards during loss-making years. FY2023 recognized a large benefit (-$776M), then reversed in FY2024-25. Normalizes by FY2027-28.

Regulatory Environment

RegulationStatusImpact
Online Platform Fairness BillUnder legislative reviewFines up to 10% of revenue; settlement cycle constraints
KFTC EnforcementOngoing (most-fined conglomerate)$114M cumulative; upward trend; criminal probe risk
PIPA Data Privacy (amended Feb 2026)Active10% of revenue fines for high-severity breaches
Worker Presumption LawProposed Jan 2026Could reclassify gig delivery workers as employees
US Tariffs on Korea25% (raised Jan 2026)Indirect macro drag; not direct Coupang exposure

Net Macro Assessment

Macro Score
MILD HEADWIND
3 mild tailwinds (GDP recovery, inflation, digital adoption) vs. 7 headwinds (regulation dominant risk)
Henry Obegi • Coupang Deep Dive • March 2026 • Prepared for Manish Chopra